Election 2010 - Key Battles (3)

BIRMINGHAM LADYWOOD

27-04-2010

Following the retirement of Clare Short, Labour’s 6,000 plus majority in this inner city constituency is being defended by Shabana Mahmood – selected in controversial circumstances above local councillor Yvonne Mosquito. Liberal Democrat Ayoub Khan reckons this could be the key to his selection.

In fact if you listen to Khan for more than two minutes, he’ll give you a whole list of reasons why – in his words – “it’s in the bag”.

As he observes, Short - who susbsequently resigned the Labour whip - had a large personal following, and that certainly won’t be inherited by Mahmood.

Then there’s the Clegg Factor – those TV debates have certainly boosted interest in the Liberal Democrats and in a constituency where they have a credible candidate, this has to be worth a few hundred (possibly a few thousand) votes.

Khan is a local lad, too, having, progressed to the bar after attending a local primary school and comprehensive.

But it’s the issue of Mosquito which, above all else, could be decisive.

According to Khan, disgruntled former Labour activists now seem to be using their influence – albeit at a very low key community level – to support his cause; or at the very least to discredit Mahmood.

There are certainly members of the local African-Caribbean community who have indicated to The Stirrer that they would struggle to vote for Mahmood because of the circumstances in which she was selected – but it remains to be seen how significant this will be in what remains an extremely diverse constituency.

Labour's campaign is reckoned by some observers on the ground to lack urgency, but it will be supported by the power of biraderi or clan voting among the Pakistani Muslim community; and the anti-war fervour which fuelled the Lib Dems last around has diminished.

One political activist who knows the area well told The Stirrer Mahmood is 5-1 ON to win the seat - odds which in horse racing are the closest you can get to a guaranteed winner.

For all that, we're backing Khan's local connections - and the fall out from the Mosquito affair - to win the day.

Stirrer prediction: Ayoub Khan by a whisker.

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